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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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