Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
