The mean count of per-day killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. But, public safety analysts have warned that murder numbers might not signal better national stability.
Marked Reduction in Daily Figures
There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The result in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the least number of murders were recorded for any single November in the last decade.
Recent Context and Government Strategy
Fierce cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.
That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper decline in killings this year.
At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”
The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
- Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
- Enhanced cooperation between government authorities.
Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns
But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.
“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”
According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.
“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for assessing the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it might hide days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.
“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he stated.
Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success
An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.
“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration
Yet despite these efforts, Mexico is still beset by severe bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.
A short time later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.
“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.
