Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
